Why Kwame isn't going anywhere

So what happens now with Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick?

He was back at work today, after a week of self-imposed seclusion. The media were barred from getting anywhere near him as he walked to his office (probably a preview of things to come). And looking at the context of what Kwame said last night in his private address to the people of the city, it will be quite some time before the entire sordid texting affair (snicker) is played out.

Here is what I think will happen:

(1) The mayor will absolutely not resign. He made that clear in his speech last night when he made that Brokeback Mountainesque claim that he couldn't quit the city. He will try to hang on to the bitter end, if it comes at all. Why? He and his inner circle are convinced, perhaps correctly, that he can weather the storm surrounding the texting scandal. If yesterday's pro-mayor demonstration in front of the Spirit of Detroit is any indication of where things stand with the city's electorate, and barring any gaffes between now and the next election for mayor, Kwame is safe.

(2) Kwame is safe because, as he and his supporters will remind everyone, he has done a lot for the city. Hundreds of abandoned buildings have been torn down. Dozens of new buildings have been built in the downtown area. Whole neighborhoods have been cleaned up. Some of his plans have run afoul of the unions in the city (i.e. outsourcing some city services, converting public schools to charter schools, strong-arming city workers into accepting pay and benefit concessions), which would explain why they were the primary organizers of yesterday's anti-mayor rally, which was held at the same time and place as the aforementioned pro-mayor rally. And yes, there were fisticuffs.

(3) Since there is still the pending legal matter of whether the mayor and his former chief of staff committed perjury last year during the Whistleblower Trial, don't expect any answers from him regarding his behavior or the decisions he made. The media can dog him all they want, they won't get anywhere. If anything, the possibility of the mayor facing perjury charges gives him a convenient out. Otherwise, surely he would have opened last night's speech to the droves of reporters waiting outside. He may have even done a 1-on-1 with his favorite media personality, Steve Wilson. (Now that would have been something to see). Alas, all that the media will be able to do is run through the 14,000 text messages and try to find a smoking gun.

(4) And then there's the issue of any perjury charges. The county prosecutor has said that she has launched an investigation into the matter. Does that mean that charges are guaranteed to be forthcoming? Not at all. To the casual observer of the content of the text messages, it seems obvious that Kwame and his chief of staff did commit perjury when they denied having an affair or any knowledge of the firings of police officers who were close to exposing the affair. But you and I (well, I'm assuming most of you) have spent a grand total of zero hours in law school. What if the text messages are ruled inadmissible? The case would pretty much be blown away if that were to happen.

(5) If the perjury charges do come to fruition, expect the whole process to come to a c-r-a-w-l. The mayor's attorneys will make sure that it will be years before there is a trial. At some point Kwame would have to decide if wants to run for re-election in 2009. Expect him to. And he'll probably win if, as I mentioned above in #1, he stays out of trouble.

(6) Here's the climax: IF there is a perjury trial, and IF a jury of the mayor's peers find him guilty, then and only then will we see Kwame M. Kilpatrick resign as the mayor of Detroit, rather than face the embarrassment of removal by the city council (if they even have the power to do that). But that's two big IFs. More than likely, if it even got that far, he would beat the charges - and go on serving as the mayor.

That's why the deputy mayor scoffed on Tuesday when a reporter (sounded like Steve Wilson) asked him if the mayor was going to resign. There are plenty of hurdles to get over before we get there - IF we get there. Again, to the casual observer outside the Manoogian Mansion, it seems that resigning is a foregone conclusion. But Kwame and his friends think he can beat the scandal, beat the charges, (and, hell, beat Steve Wilson and the "white media") and go on. For sure, his legacy will be controversial and divisive, and it will go on ...

... for a while longer anyway.